When Frank Wisner, the seasoned U.S. diplomat and envoy of President Obama, met with Hosni Mubarak on Tuesday, Feb. 1, the scene must have been familiar to both men. For 30 years, American diplomats would enter one of the lavish palaces in Heliopolis, the neighborhood in Cairo from which Mubarak ruled Egypt. The Egyptian President would receive the American warmly, and the two would begin to talk about American-Egyptian relations and the fate of Middle East peace. Then the American might gently raise the issue of political reform. The President would tense up and snap back, "If I do what you want, the Islamic fundamentalists will seize power." The conversation would return to the latest twist in the peace process.
It is quite likely that a version of this exchange took place on that Tuesday. Mubarak would surely have warned Wisner that without him, Egypt would fall prey to the radicalism of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's Islamist political movement. He has often reminded visitors of the U.S.'s folly in Iran in 1979, when it withdrew support for a staunch ally, the Shah, only to see the regime replaced by a nasty anti-American theocracy. But this time, the U.S. diplomat had a different response to the Egyptian President's arguments. It was time for the transition to begin.
And that was the message Obama delivered to Mubarak when the two spoke on the phone on Feb. 1. "It was a tough conversation," said an Administration official. Senior national-security aides gathered around a speakerphone in the Oval Office to listen to the call. Mubarak made it clear how difficult the uprising had been for him personally; Obama pressed the Egyptian leader to refrain from any violent response to the hundreds of thousands in the streets. But a day later, those streets — which had been remarkably peaceful since the demonstrations began — turned violent. In Cairo, Mubarak supporters, some of them wading into crowds on horseback, began battering protesters.
It was a reminder that the precise course that Egypt's revolution will take over the next few days and weeks cannot be known. The clashes between the groups supporting and opposing the government mark a new phase in the conflict. The regime has many who live off its patronage, and they could fight to keep their power. But the opposition is now energized and empowered. And the world — and the U.S. — has put Mubarak on notice.
Whatever happens in the next few days will not change the central narrative of Egypt's revolution. Historians will note that Jan. 25 marked the start of the end of Mubarak's 30-year reign. And now we'll test the theory that politicians and scholars have long debated. Will a more democratic Egypt become a radical Islamic state? Can democracy work in the Arab world?
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Mubarak inicia período de transição com a instalação de duas comissões
Da BBC Brasil
Brasília – Depois de 15 dias de manifestações de protesto contra o presidente do Egito, Hosni Mubarak, o governo anunciou hoje (8) o começo do processo de transição, com a instalação de duas comissões que vão por em prática os acordos fechados com a oposição e tratar de mudanças constitucionais. Segundo o vice-presidente Omar Suleiman, que fez o anúncio, haverá um cronograma a ser seguido.
“Chegamos a um consenso com o diálogo em nível nacional. Um cronograma claro será anunciado para a transição pacífica”, disse Suleiman, que foi nomeado por Mubarak o mediador das negociações com a oposição. “O presidente [Mubarak] decidiu formar um comitê constitucional para examinar as emendas constitucionais que vêm sendo solicitadas.”
Porém, os vários segmentos oposicionistas defendem a saída imediata de Mubarak e insistem em manter os protestos até que o presidente abra mão do poder. No entanto, Mubarak informou apenas que não se candidatará em setembro à reeleição e que ficará até o final do seu mandato – que acaba em dezembro de 2011.
Apesar da controvérsia, o vice-presidente reiterou a importância das comissões. “[As comissões vão trabalhar de forma] transparente no que for concordado entre as partes envolvidas no diálogo nacional", disse ele. Suleiman também garantiu que serão investigados os casos de violência registrados nos dias de protestos.
Para Suleiman, com diálogo, é possível encerrar a onda de protestos no país. "O presidente vê com bons olhos essa harmonia e acredita que ela nos coloca no caminho para sair da atual crise", disse ele. No entanto, dezenas de milhares de manifestantes voltaram a ocupar hoje a Praça Tahir, no Cairo.
De acordo com a organização não governamental Human Rights Watch, o governo Mubarak, por meio do Serviço de Saúde, oculta o número de mortos e feridos nos conflitos registrados no país. Pelos dados das Nações Unidas, são pelo menos 300 mortos e cerca de 3 mil feridos.
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